The details of the latest inflation report, which showed quarter-on-quarter headline inflation and the RBA’s preferred underlying measure (trimmed mean CPI) higher than consensus estimates, sends a worrying signal for the central bank. While annual inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.6%, due to base effects, it is nowhere near as fast or deep enough for the RBA to begin an easing cycle anytime soon.

Equity markets have pulled back in April but remain well up on levels of 12 months ago. As we have discussed recently, a correction was looking overdue given the pace of the advance over the past year, particularly in respect of the US equity market.

Gold has had a stellar run this year, reaching all-time highs of $2375/oz. Indeed, gold is outperforming most major equity markets, with a gain of 15% year-to-date.

The global equity market continues to keep the faith in respect of easing global inflation despite some recent signs of stickiness. Last week’s US CPI result for February came in above expectations. This was after an upside surprise for the January release. Despite this, the US equity market is still sticking to the lower inflation and lower interest rates narrative. In this report we outline why the “last mile” of US inflation normalisation may prove more difficult than the significant progress made over the last year.

Over the past decade, large cap tech stocks have outperformed the broader ASX 200 index. These stocks have a history of trading at high valuation multiples relative to the market, leading to the (sometimes incorrect) perception that they are prohibitively ‘expensive’ for investors. However, in this report we outline why the past performance of Australian tech stocks suggests their future earnings potential in many cases justifies these premium prices.

Australian equities hit a fresh all-time high last week amidst a continued global equity rally. While the Australian equity market has performed solidly in an absolute sense over the past 12 months, delivering a total return of 11%, it has lagged the global equity market and indeed Australia has underperformed most of the major equity regions. This report explores the cyclical and structural outlook for Australia.

After lagging large caps significantly in recent years, global and domestic small cap benchmarks are showing improved performance in recent months. Small caps generally underperform large caps in the lead-up to an economic slowdown, and this cycle has been no exception. In this report, we present why, in our view, the fourth quarter of last year likely marked a turning point for small caps.

US stocks have made a strong start to 2024 (+5%) after a powerful recovery in 2023 (+24%). Technology sector leadership has been a feature of the US market's advance, with mega cap technology stocks surging over the past year. This report highlights why over the longer term it remains hard to ignore superior growth prospects of the star-studded US equity market.