US voters head to the polls this Wednesday November 6^th (Australian time). If the betting odds prove correct, Republican candidate Donald Trump looks set to regain the Presidency. This report looks at the implications of the presidential election for the US and the world when it comes to deficit levels, Fed independence, energy policy equity and bond markets.

US bond yields are up ~60 basis points since their recent lows in mid-September. As is often the case, Australian long bond yields have largely tracked the upswing in US yields. In this report, we look at the outlook for both bonds and equities over coming months.

The Australian equity market continues to hit new highs, aided by a powerful global upswing and widespread central bank easing. In this report, we look at the outlook for the future performance of Australian equities that have only moderate prospects for earnings growth.

A week after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the RBA once again left the official cash rate on hold last week. In this report, we look at the impact on markets of the RBA’s decision to refrain from following the lead of the Fed, and the likely timeline for an eventual rate cut.

Global growth momentum has softened somewhat in recent months, led by slower growth in the world’s major economies. In this report, we assess prospects for the global economy, against a developing global rate cut cycle, structural challenges in China and the uncertainty created by the US election.

Despite some near-term choppiness in global equity markets, the backdrop for global equities remains reasonably supportive with rate cuts and a soft landing. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to kick off a significant rate cutting cycle this week, with at least three 25 basis point cuts by year end.

The Australian economy remains in an unusual spot, beset by sluggish headline growth alongside sticky inflation, a relatively tight labour market and low productivity. In this report, we examine the outlook for Australia’s economy heading into 2025, including the challenges of rebalancing and when the RBA is likely to ease policy.

Australian equities pushed higher through August, as US recession fears and Japanese carry trade selling subsided quite quickly. In this report, we look at the implications for Australian equities of elevated PE levels, as well as prospects for a rate cut from the RBA.