The A$ has been under renewed pressure since late September, as the prospect, and then reality, of another Trump presidency, has joined a hawkish pivot by the US Fed to drive a surge in the US dollar. This report explores key drivers for Australia’s exchange rate over the coming year, and our view that the A$ is fundamentally undervalued on a long-term basis.

The RBA is now widely expected to deliver its first of several interest rate cuts when it meets next week on the 18^th of February. This report explores the domestic cyclicals that still offer attractive value and are well placed to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on portfolio holding Collins Foods.

Global equity markets have made a choppy start to 2025, as concerns around Chinese competition in AI (DeepSeek) and President Trump’s (volatile) tariff announcements have buffeted markets. This report explores the market outlook for 2025, in the wake of DeepSeek’s disruption of the tech sector and Trump’s tariff threats.

The December quarter Australian CPI numbers surprised the market when they were released on Wednesday. This report discusses the chance of a February interest rate cut given better-than-feared CPI & easing wage pressures, and what it means for portfolios.

Heading into the February 2025 reporting season, earnings forecasts remain subdued for the ASX 200. This report discusses our expectations for key upcoming results, including Focus Portfolio holdings WiseTech and CAR Group, and retail bellwether Wesfarmers.

This report explores the key risk factors / themes that are likely to be prominent in 2025, including the path of interest rates domestically and offshore, the Australian federal election, Trump’s second term as US president, and China’s stimulus efforts. 

2024 has been a solid year for Australian equities, with the ASX 200 returning +13% this year-to-date despite a weak earnings backdrop. In this report, we explore some of our key sector views heading into 2025, including our positive stance towards select commodities, our cautious outlook for the big 4 banks, and our ongoing conviction in the technology sector.

The past 12 months have been a very good period for investors, with performance once again led by a stellar showing from the US equity market. In this report, we provide a recap of 2024, as well as our take on market prospects in 2025 after Donald Trump assumes office as US President.