After an extended run of better-than-expected earnings seasons, Q3 results from the US have proved somewhat disappointing. With forward earnings estimates now facing significant downgrades, we explore the earnings headwinds facing the US equity market.

The past month has been a better one for stock markets, at least by 2022 standards, with US and global equities managing a decent bounce from their mid-October cycle lows. In this week’s report, we consider the Fed’s role in the recent equity bounce and how expectations around Fed policy are likely to influence financial markets going forward.

At its October board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the money market and economists alike with a lower than expected 25 basis point (bp) increase, taking the official cash rate to 2.6%. In this note, we explore whether this partial pivot is likely to prove prudent or foolhardy.

The consumer staples sector is (considered) less risky and volatile, offering better downside protection to investors, however it does not provide the future return profiles we look for. In this report, we share our rationalisation for our underweight positioning on consumer staples.

The global fixed interest market has a unique and multi-faceted role in both financial markets and the real economy. In this week’s report, we explore the flow-on effects of the big rate reset on the fixed interest market.

In 2022, we have witnessed one of the fastest valuation de-ratings on record, as interest rates rise and growth concerns build. The question we explore in this week’s report is whether the latest equity sell-off has pushed valuations to levels that represent an attractive buying opportunity.

In terms of monetary policy, New Zealand (NZ) can be likened to a more extreme version of Australia, with the hiking cycle playing out in a more dramatic fashion. With its reserve bank lifting rates in October 2021, 7 months ahead of the RBA, NZ may provide an example of the repercussions of aggressive tightening. What can Australia learn from this example?

The hawkish tone of Fed Governor Jay Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole has catalysed increased risk aversion towards the investment outlook. With substantial selloffs already occurring in both the S&P500 and Australian equities, this week’s report takes an in-depth look at the investment implications of Powell’s speech.