The past 12 months have been a very good period for investors, with performance once again led by a stellar showing from the US equity market. In this report, we provide a recap of 2024, as well as our take on market prospects in 2025 after Donald Trump assumes office as US President.

The Q3 2024 US earnings season has been relatively mixed, but nevertheless paints a constructive picture of US corporate earnings which continues to rebound from weakness in 2022-23. This update covers key themes including anticipated acceleration in earnings growth next year, the mixed performance of the Magnificent 7, and a deep dive into the global payments giants, which also reported well.

Dividends have been a significant source of returns for ASX investors over time. In this report, we discuss our approach to equity income investing, which looks beyond dividend yields to uncover the companies that will deliver the strongest and most sustainable dividends over the long-term.

The year-on-year growth rate is well below Australia’s long run trend and the weakest since the COVID lockdown in 2020. This report discusses the outlook for 2025, given ailing productivity and per capita GDP growth, versus the cyclical boost from the impact of tax cuts and “pre-election” government stimulus.

The headline monthly CPI indicator in October 2024 held at 2.1% year-on-year. This was below the market consensus of 2.3%, and is the equal slowest pace since March 2021. This report looks at the reasons behind the decline in headline CPI in October, and the implications for the RBA’s upcoming decisions on interest rates.

Following this month’s US election, Donald Trump is set to re-enter the White House in January 2025, alongside a Republican majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. This report discusses the implications of Trump’s presidency for the Focus Portfolio’s positions in Aristocrat, James Hardie, Breville, CSL, Santos, and Worley.

The US equity market has generally taken a glass half-full view of Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency, continuing to rise in wake of the election. This report looks at the outlook for inflation, interest rates and asset markets during the opening phase of Trump’s second presidential term.

When it comes to investing in cyclical businesses that are, to some extent, sensitive to the ebb and flow of the economic cycle, quality is a particularly important consideration. This report looks at two hallmark examples of quality cyclicals in the Focus Portfolio - James Hardie and Aristocrat Leisure.