Recent market volatility has masked significant global performance rotation, with small and mid caps outperforming over the past month. In this report, we investigate how the monetary policy cycle might affect small and mid cap stocks, and what other equity sectors look attractive.

The US second-quarter earnings season paints a picture of robust corporate earnings growth, despite the pullback in the S&P 500 over the last few weeks. In this report, we examine the role of tech in the strong performance of the S&P 500, and the outlook for the US market given the strong tech led gains over the past year.

Volatility has spiked over the past two weeks, with equity markets falling significantly before bouncing. Bond yields also dropped sharply, while currency markets (most notably the Yen) have seen heightened volatility. In this report, we look at why risk assets can stabilise and ultimately recover, as US recession fears ease and the rapid undermining of carry trades stabilises.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than expected for the June quarter, providing cheer to both interest rate and equity markets. The RBA is likely to stick to a ‘hawkishly dovish’ stance, however, by keeping interest rates steady. In this report, we examine the dynamics underlying Australian inflation and the outlook for rates adjustments from the RBA.

The global equity uptrend should resume despite the US market falling 4.7% off recent highs, given expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and no recession on the horizon. In this report, we look at the macro backdrop for a soft landing in the US, and the implications for both the world economy and global equities.

Despite touching fresh all-time highs, the Australian equities market continues to lag global stocks as the RBA’s monetary policy becomes increasingly out of step with other advanced economies.

The US has seen a remarkable 17% rally in the first half of 2024, driven by mega-cap tech stocks. The Magnificent 7 tech companies accounted for more than 60% of year-to-date gains. In this report, we explore the implications of this divergence in US stock performance, as well as whether valuations are in bubble territory and the prospects for broadening market participation.

Trump has a towering lead in the election race following his debate with President Biden. A win from the Republican candidate could create greater uncertainty for markets, particularly given his aggressive trade policies. In this report, we discuss the key policy differences between each candidate and the implications for financial markets.