After a week of turmoil markets have rebounded, as the Trump administration announced a surprising backflip on its Reciprocal Tariff Policy. This report explores what Trump’s tariff backflip means for the US and global markets.

Last week delivered a relatively uninspiring Federal budget, but some modestly good news on inflation with the release of the February monthly CPI figures. This report looks at the outlook for the Australian economy, given fiscal policy that makes government spending look too big relative to the economy.

The Federal Government has overseen a swing back to deficit for FY2025 and through all of the ten-year forecast period. This is despite a stronger than expected labour market and higher than expected commodity prices that have helped the budget position significantly. The Government now forecasts the budget balance in FY25 will be a deficit of $27.6 bn.

The US Federal Reserve left the policy rate on hold (4.25%-to-4.5%) at last week’s FOMC meeting, as was widely expected. This report explores the outlook for US monetary policy, following the slowdown in the Fed’s QT plans and the impact of Trump’s policy platform.

The US markets have been rocked by tariff tensions, as President Donald Trump stays on the offensive with his tough trade stance policy. This report looks at the implications for inflation, interest rates and equity markets in the face of Trump’s threats of a trade war.

The Australian market has pulled back by around 5-6% in recent weeks,  in line with the pullback in US equities. This report looks at the near-term prospects for Australian equity performance in light of the pullback.

US equities have retreated from their record highs of mid-February. The pullback is still relatively small in absolute terms, at just over 4.5% at the time of writing (28/02). This report explores the impacts on the market of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s welter of policy actions.

The RBA cut the official cash rate last week by 25 basis points. The 25 basis point cut is the first rate reduction since 2020. This report examines the prospect of further cuts from the RBA, as well as the impact on Australian financial markets.