Heading into the February 2025 reporting season, earnings forecasts remain subdued for the ASX 200. This report discusses our expectations for key upcoming results, including Focus Portfolio holdings WiseTech and CAR Group, and retail bellwether Wesfarmers.

This report explores the key risk factors / themes that are likely to be prominent in 2025, including the path of interest rates domestically and offshore, the Australian federal election, Trump’s second term as US president, and China’s stimulus efforts. 

2024 has been a solid year for Australian equities, with the ASX 200 returning +13% this year-to-date despite a weak earnings backdrop. In this report, we explore some of our key sector views heading into 2025, including our positive stance towards select commodities, our cautious outlook for the big 4 banks, and our ongoing conviction in the technology sector.

The past 12 months have been a very good period for investors, with performance once again led by a stellar showing from the US equity market. In this report, we provide a recap of 2024, as well as our take on market prospects in 2025 after Donald Trump assumes office as US President.

The Q3 2024 US earnings season has been relatively mixed, but nevertheless paints a constructive picture of US corporate earnings which continues to rebound from weakness in 2022-23. This update covers key themes including anticipated acceleration in earnings growth next year, the mixed performance of the Magnificent 7, and a deep dive into the global payments giants, which also reported well.

Dividends have been a significant source of returns for ASX investors over time. In this report, we discuss our approach to equity income investing, which looks beyond dividend yields to uncover the companies that will deliver the strongest and most sustainable dividends over the long-term.

The year-on-year growth rate is well below Australia’s long run trend and the weakest since the COVID lockdown in 2020. This report discusses the outlook for 2025, given ailing productivity and per capita GDP growth, versus the cyclical boost from the impact of tax cuts and “pre-election” government stimulus.

The headline monthly CPI indicator in October 2024 held at 2.1% year-on-year. This was below the market consensus of 2.3%, and is the equal slowest pace since March 2021. This report looks at the reasons behind the decline in headline CPI in October, and the implications for the RBA’s upcoming decisions on interest rates.