The strength of the US tech sector and general hype with respect to potential AI opportunities has raised the question of parallels to the dot com bubble boom of 1999 - 2000. While there are some cautionary parallels between then and now, we don’t find the same evidence of a broad-based bubble. In this report, we assess the current market picture relative to the early 2000s dot com bubble.

The recent de-rate in Santos’ share price following XRG’s takeover withdrawal presents an attractive buying opportunity.  For existing holders of Woodside, we see strong merit in a pair trade, selling Woodside and using the proceeds to buy Santos. In this note, we provide an update on our current views towards the oil and gas sector and reiterate our investment thesis for Santos. 

The Australian dollar has experienced a notable rebound from its recent April lows, up 11% post ‘Liberation Day’, when risk-off sentiment and heightened volatility weighed heavily on markets. In spite of all this, from a long-term perspective the Australian dollar continues to look cheap.  This report looks at the outlook for the Australian dollar in light of these developments, as well as the implications for portfolio allocations.

Easing inflation, interest rate relief and stronger incomes are creating a favourable backdrop for consumer and retail companies, supporting a strong earnings growth outlook. Valuations, however, appear stretched at the sector level, trading at multi-decade highs. Despite this, there are select opportunities that still offer value, including Collins Foods, Autosports Group and Universal Store.

The price of gold has soared this year-to-date by 39%, with another surge over the past month of 5%. This suggests gold may be overbought in the short-term. This report provides a rundown of gold’s history as an investment, and explores its future prospects in light of geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarisation and global monetary policy trends.

Since the start of the RBA easing cycle on February 18, the Small Ords have returned 14.3%, outpacing the ASX 100’s return of 5.8%. This note will explore the general case for small caps, why current outperformance can continue and provide two key opportunities.

Bond yield movements have been attracting heightened attention recently, with competing narratives buffeting bond markets and the very long end of yield curves rising across the G7. This report examines the key factors currently impacting the US and Australian bond markets, and the outlook for fixed income securities.

…From a Walk to a Jog. Australia’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in the June quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, beating consensus expectations of ~0.4% - 0.5% growth for the quarter. Private demand improved in the quarter led by the household sector. This report looks at Australia’s current economic performance and the broader implications for rate cuts and asset markets.